Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Gold luster began to fade?

European crisis is prolonged, the decline in yield or yield on U.S. government debt securities and the deterioration of the dollar has become more 'shiny' than gold. Investors began to 'thaw' the gold to dollar assets.

Gold prices had hit a record high of U.S. $ 1,900 per ounce during September, there were already slumped to 8% in 2 weeks. The largest decrease to a quarter occurred on Monday (09/20/2011) yesterday.

In recent months, gold has been regarded as one of the most solid safe investment, especially when developed countries have to face the economic slowdown and the high debt that should get a stream of liquidity, together with a weakening currency.

In addition, fiscal and monetary policy stimulus that is feared could trigger massive inflation that pushed gold prices.

But fears of failure to pay could drag Greek other European countries, and could further lead to the European banking system losses to investors are turning to the U.S. dollar is considered more secure.

"People began to move straight to cash rather than seek alternative safe assets such as gold," said David Meger, director of metals trading Vision Financial Markets was quoted as saying by Reuters on Tuesday (20/09/2011).

Some money managers also expressed his own view of his prudence.

"I have pulled my horns a bit, and stay close to neutral. The things in the back of my mind is the situation in Europe," said Gregory Whiteley, who manages a portfolio of government bonds in Dobleline Capital with assets of U.S. $ 16 billion.

Loomis Sayles Vice Chairman, Dan Fuss which manages foreign assets up to U.S. $ 160 billion, said the company's value increased exposure to U.S. dollar assets during the summer for not easing the problem in Europe and the U.S. economy began to grow.

Said Fuss, Loomis dollar exposure has increased from 60% to 70%, while non-dollar exposure dropped from 40% to 30%.

"We increased our exposure to assets in U.S. dollars because the world is also a little scary. There is a short-term tactical move. That said, the U.S. still owes very much as a place best in the world," he said.

John Taylor, chief executive officer of FX Concept which manages the fund up to U.S. $ 8 billion, said he still holds a long position for the U.S. dollar. Taylor, who last year predicted the U.S. could be entering another recession in 2011 also said he still believes 'bearish' for U.S. stocks.

Some analysts said gold may be a sign of decline, investors who have entered since the beginning of starting to take profits.

As is known, entered the gold earlier this year at a price of U.S. $ 1,400 per ounce and gradually climbed up through U.S. $ 1,920 per ounce earlier this month. But slowly, gold prices are now beginning to recede.

"Gold has lost a little luster, but gold is one of the few assets that have been scored a short-term gains for everyone these days," said Greg Salvaggio, vice president of Tempus Consulting.

While Adnan Akan, head of forex Fischer Trancis Trees & Watts In fact, gold may include some assets that can be sold investors to cover losses in stocks and other risky assets.

After the collapse of Lehman Brothers in mid-September 2008, he said gold initially rose to 15% as investors sought a safe place. By the end of October 2008, gold actually fell 20% as investors have to meet margin calls or a risky trade.

"You get nervous, volatile movements as we see now and people have to sell what they have," he said.

Same mechanism tends to push the U.S. dollar at a stressful time for investors who buy at the lowest interest rates to buy assets that yield higher, should hurry to buy again when these assets began to fall in value.

The brokerage estimates that gold could rebound if the penetrating US4 1700 per ounce for the buyer looking to gain a position in the future. Gold prices are at the last U.S. $ 1,778.49 an ounce. While the price of precious metals from Antam is Rp 572,000 per gram.
 

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